2 Smart Money addresses contributed $245,300, believing that the "U.S. will not invade Iran before 2027."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money addresses have wagered $245.3k on "Will the US invade Iran by 2027?" choosing "No," with the current probability of "Yes" at 30.5%.

Of these 2 smart money addresses, Eatpraylove has a win rate of 57% in the Politics category, with a total profit of $354k; 0xc6587b11 has a win rate of 71% in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $629k.

This market will settle to "No" if the US does not launch any military attacks aimed at establishing actual control over part of Iran's territory by 2027 (purely airstrikes, naval blockades, targeting specific military objectives, or limited coastal advances are not counted).

Reuters reported on March 24 and March 30 that there is consideration of deploying ground troops to the Iranian coast or seizing the strategic island of Kharg, which accounts for around 90% of Iran's oil exports, with the 82nd Airborne Division paratroopers already arriving in the Middle East as a potential executing force.

However, the recent trend still leans towards limited pressure rather than invasion preparations: Vice President Vance explicitly stated on April 7 after the strike on Kharg Island that this does not represent a strategic shift for the US, indicating a desire to end the conflict through negotiations; on April 20, Reuters indicated that US-Iran contacts still focus on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and ceasefire arrangements.

An analysis by CSIS on April 20 pointed out that the current level of US military forces and capability structure is closer to the punitive strike of "Desert Fox" in 1998 rather than the large-scale ground invasion of 2003, insufficient to support a large-scale ground war or regime change; on the other hand, the current US domestic approval ratings are very low, and diplomacy remains the primary path.

Note: Based on their past transaction patterns, it is judged that these traders are not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and there is a behavior of taking profits or stop-loss at a certain point after opening the position.

Accounts:
0xc02147dee42356b7a4edbb1c35ac4ffa95f61fa8
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784

Total Wager: $245.3k
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