Bitunix Analyst: USD Pricing Power Oscillates Between Policy Credibility and War Outcomes, Markets Enter FX-Driven Risk Reallocation Phase

BlockBeats News, April 21st. The market has begun trading「who controls the conditions for ending the conflict.」Trump has explicitly shortened the ceasefire timeline while maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining tool, turning energy supply risks into negotiation leverage. Meanwhile, internal divisions within Iran over negotiation positions make it difficult to form a unified path in the short term. This shifts geopolitical risk from a one-off event into a persistent expectation variable.

In this context, the core driver of the USD has shifted. It is no longer solely driven by rate differentials and safe-haven demand, but increasingly by a combined pricing of「policy credibility and liquidity path.」On one hand, Warsh signaled a clearly hawkish stance ahead of hearings, emphasizing independence and a commitment to controlling inflation, effectively ruling out aggressive near-term rate cuts and providing structural support for the USD. On the other hand, political pressure for rate cuts persists, and markets continue to price in a potential path where balance sheet tightening offsets rate cuts. This divergence prevents the USD from forming a unilateral trend, keeping it in a volatile range.

Structurally, the DXY has pulled back from recent highs around 100.5 and is now fluctuating near 98, entering a short-term consolidation phase. However, the 97.4–97.0 zone below remains a clear support area. This suggests the market has not fully shifted into risk-on mode, but is reassessing whether the USD still retains its advantages as both a safe-haven and a yield-driven asset. In other words, the USD is not turning bearish, but entering a「pricing divergence phase,」with upside constrained by policy expectations and downside supported by war and inflation dynamics.

This USD structure directly impacts the mechanics of the crypto market. BTC is currently testing around the 76K level, while 72.5K continues to serve as a key support zone, maintaining a range-bound liquidity redistribution structure. The USD』s「non-trending but high-volatility」behavior amplifies false breakouts and liquidity sweeps in BTC, rather than driving a directional trend.

The key lies in two potential USD paths ahead. If the conflict escalates and energy-driven inflation persists, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates, the USD could strengthen again, making the 77K–78K zone in BTC more likely to act as a bull trap. Conversely, if negotiations make progress and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, easing inflation expectations, markets may reprice rate cuts, weakening the USD and allowing BTC to break through higher liquidity zones and extend upward.

In summary, the market』s core focus has shifted from「risk events themselves」to「how the USD prices those events.」Until the USD establishes a clear directional trend, the crypto market will remain range-bound, with liquidity dynamics dominating over trend formation.