4 accounts have collectively contributed $141.6k, believing that the US and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement by the 22nd of this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 whales have invested $141.6 thousand in the question "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by April 22, 2026?" with the current probability of "Yes" being 17.5%.

Among these 4 whales, denizz has a win rate of 68% in the political category, with a total profit of $1.3 million; 0x162f6fff has a win rate of 72% in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $166 thousand; 0xc84f7e76 has a win rate of 76% in the political category, with a total profit of $143 thousand; Fernandoinfante has a win rate of 18% in the Trump category, with a total profit of $455 thousand.

Reuters reported on April 20 that the United States had hoped to initiate a second round of Islamabad talks before the ceasefire deadline. Trump stated that US representatives would arrive in Islamabad on the night of April 20, but Iran had already publicly refused to participate in new talks through official media, citing reasons including the US's continued blockade of Iranian ports, escalated public threats, and US's shifting positions and "excessive demands."

On the other hand, Iran's "10-point plan" diverges significantly from the US's previous "15-point plan" on key clauses. The US demands that Iran completely cease all uranium enrichment activities, dismantle key enrichment facilities and hand over high-enriched uranium stocks. Additionally, the US requests Iran to accept a broader security framework covering regional allies, cease funding regional proxies, and fully open the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, Iran insists on obtaining a secure permanent ceasefire, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, unfreezing assets, and retaining explicit rights to uranium enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss strategies after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73;
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d;
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5;
0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95.