Bitunix Analyst:Energy Route Competition Escalates into Supply Chain Restructuring,Physical Risk Dominates Asset Pricing

BlockBeats News, April 14th: The core market contradiction has evolved from a simple rise in energy prices into a broader contest over「energy transportation control and supply availability.」As the U.S. increases pressure on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia warns of potential retaliatory blockades in the Red Sea, concerns over the stability of the global energy supply chain are intensifying.

This is not only reflected in rising oil prices, but more importantly in a shift in pricing logic. WTI has unusually traded at a premium over Brent, signaling that capital is moving away from global benchmarks toward physical deliverability. Energy is no longer just a commodity, but is increasingly being treated as a strategic asset.

From a policy and market perspective, this structure reinforces inflation persistence risks. Federal Reserve officials have clearly indicated that if oil prices remain elevated, inflation will gradually spread across other sectors, suggesting that inflation may transition from a short-term disturbance into a broad-based transmission process. Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing energy pricing and tax adjustment measures, indicating that major economies are beginning to passively respond to imported inflation.

Combined with a significant drop in OPEC production, supply-side contraction and geopolitical risks are reinforcing each other, making it difficult for energy prices to decline rapidly and further constraining global policy flexibility.

In the crypto market, BTC has entered a zone where previous supply levels overlap with dense liquidation clusters, reflecting tentative risk absorption under macro uncertainty. The 75,000 level forms a clear resistance, while 75,600 represents a key liquidation trigger zone. If activated, cumulative liquidations could exceed $600 million, creating short-term liquidity-driven upside. However, under constrained overall liquidity conditions, such moves are more likely to be structural squeezes rather than trend-driven capital inflows.

On the downside, the 73,400 level serves as a key support to watch. If this zone fails to hold, price may return to lower-liquidity areas for rebalancing.

At the same time, extreme rallies in assets like RAVE highlight that current market drivers are not fundamentals, but liquidity squeezes driven by low float and high leverage structures. This dynamic is consistent with BTC』s structure near high-level liquidation zones—the market is shifting from「capital-driven trends」to「structure-triggered volatility,」where price extensions rely more on leverage and liquidations than on new capital inflows.

Overall, the market has entered a phase dominated by physical supply risks. Energy, shipping, and geopolitics are no longer background variables, but core determinants of liquidity and asset pricing. Under this framework, BTC and the broader crypto market reflect capital reallocation under uncertainty, rather than independent trend formation.