A three-address input of $114,000 believes the U.S. will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium before June.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have bet $114.4k on "no" for the question "Will the US obtain enriched uranium from Iran before June?", with the current probability of "yes" at 18%.

Among these 3 accounts, Huludubu has a 67% win rate in the geopolitical category, with a total profit of $218k; mr.ozi has a 63% win rate in the political category, with a total profit of $222k; denizz has a 69% win rate in the political category, with a total profit of $947k.

On the 13th, Reuters cited US officials saying that high-level talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement. Iran rejected the US's three core demands: to stop all uranium enrichment, dismantle major enrichment facilities, and transfer highly enriched uranium. Iranian Foreign Minister Arlaqzi subsequently accused the US of turning to "maximum pressure" as the agreement neared, stating that the US presented ever-changing new conditions.

As of the 13th, the US had not yet received Iran's formal political commitment to transfer highly enriched uranium, and there is still no consensus on the most critical nuclear issues. Following the failure of the negotiations, the US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports and prepared to intercept vessels paying tolls to Iran, escalating the situation in tandem.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is judged that this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening positions.

Accounts:
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73

Total Investment: $114.4k
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