Bitunix Analyst: Energy-Driven Inflation Thesis Validated, Interest Rate Downward Trajectory Thwarted

BlockBeats News, April 11th. Yesterday, the official release of the US March CPI confirmed the market's previous expectations—The inflation rebound was not driven by demand recovery but rather by typical energy-driven input inflation. The overall CPI surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a new high in recent years. Energy prices alone skyrocketed by 10.9%, with gasoline spiking by 21.2%, directly contributing to about three-quarters of the increase, demonstrating that the "Iran risk premium" has substantially transmitted to the inflation system. However, the core CPI only rose by 0.2%, remaining moderate, indicating that the demand side has not overheated synchronously, and the economy is still in a situation of "cost-push" inflation rather than "demand-pull" asymmetrical inflation.

This structure poses a more challenging constraint on policy formation. Energy-driven inflation has a high degree of exogeneity, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to directly suppress it through interest rate tools. However, the upward trend in the overall CPI also limits the policy shift space. In other words, the market is entering a policy stalemate phase of "unable to ease and difficult to tighten." The FOMC has previously focused on the sensitivity of long-term inflation expectations to energy prices, and this data reinforces this risk—once energy prices remain high, inflation expectations may lose anchor again, forcing interest rates to remain high for a longer period.

From the market pricing perspective, this CPI report will further solidify the expectation of interest rates "remaining high." The bond market has previously hedged against the risk of rising yields in advance, and after the data release, the expectation of rate cuts will continue to be compressed. The combination of real interest rates and nominal interest rates will continue to have a persistent liquidity divergence effect. Against the backdrop of resilient employment, with the market lacking conditions to support a policy shift, risk assets will continue to face valuation pressure.

The cross-market fund logic is also converging: rising energy prices → inflation expectations rise → high interest rates sustain → restricted liquidity, forming a clear transmission chain. Within this framework, funds are more inclined toward short-term defensive and hedging allocations rather than expanding risk exposure. Market volatility will shift from "directional trends" to "event-driven liquidity redistribution."

Overall, this CPI report did not change the market direction but reinforced the existing structure—returning inflation pressure, limited policy space, delayed liquidity release. Short-term trends will depend on how funds reallocate between "inflation pressure" and "interest rate constraints."