Bitcoin Plunge Triggers Panic: Strategy of Selling Coins to Pay Interest Comes into Focus: 11.5% STRC High-Leverage Flywheel Shifts from Bitcoin Savior to Potential Destroyer

BlockBeats News, June 4th, Bitcoin fell to a low of $61,383 in the past 24 hours, with a much larger decline than altcoins, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin's market dominance. Amid a panic atmosphere, the topic of Strategy's small-scale coin selling to pay preferred stock dividends once again became a market focus, with investors once again questioning whether its high-leverage financing flywheel could trigger a potential systemic collapse in the crypto market.

IOSG believes that the 11.5% high-yield financing mechanism created by Strategy through STRC is essentially a "sell-side put option," exchanging the risk of BTC downside erosion for buying pressure. It converts the fixed-income demand into Bitcoin buying pressure, efficiently converting issued funds through STRC into BTC accumulation. However, the true vulnerability lies not in the BTC price itself, but in the mNAV. Once MSTR's mNAV falls below 1.0x for more than 4 consecutive weeks, the flywheel will enter a passive mode downward spiral within 3 months. Saylor will face a trilemma: continue to raise dividends to increase leverage, pause dividends, or be forced to sell a small amount of BTC to pay dividends. The current financing flywheel is already operating on a "single leg," and if this scenario is triggered, STRC's risk will be significantly exposed.

BitMEX Research points out that the risk of STRC is significantly higher than short-term U.S. Treasuries, and once the "music stops," investors may feel somewhat offended. They assess that in the dilemma of mNAV persistently below 1x, although Saylor has repeatedly emphasized "never selling BTC," the most likely outcome is to directly abandon STRC's stability narrative, shifting the pressure to holders rather than choosing to sell coins. This means that the current mechanism's vulnerability is far beyond the surface, and the risks of governance and subservience order have been underestimated.

NYDIG, on the other hand, believes that STRC is similar to shorting a put option on Bitcoin asset coverage—a downside risk exchange for profit by buffering asset erosion from BTC's decline. It is not just a payment risk but needs to be evaluated from the perspective of governance and subservience order, involving concentrated single-name BTC credit risk. In the long run, if BTC trades sideways or downwards, although continuously increasing dividends can temporarily attract buyers, it will gradually shift from a quasi-monetary tool to a distressed product. The vulnerability of the mechanism will be fully exposed.

Saylor himself and supporters (such as Bitwise advisor Jeff Park) highly commend the role of STRC, positioning it as a "Bitcoin-backed money market fund" and "short-term high-yield credit," leveraging funds threefold to efficiently convert into BTC buying pressure, serving as a core engine to drive Bitcoin's price. Saylor vigorously promotes this tool, even proposing changing the monthly dividends to semi-monthly to optimize liquidity. Endorsed by Wall Street institutions (such as BlackRock ETF heavyweights), STRC is still seen as a "savior," but if BTC trades sideways or downwards, the cost of an 11.5% yield may transform it from a financing tool into a destroyer, putting Saylor's smart leverage strategy to the ultimate test.