4 accounts invest $20,200 believing the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal this month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts have bet $20.2k on "no" for "Will the Hormuz Strait traffic return to normal this month?", with the current "yes" probability at 25.5%.

Among these 4 accounts, 0xc89dc66e has an 85% win rate in the geopolitical section; KnureKnume has a total profit of $97k in the geopolitical section; 0x80a0da00 has a total profit of $152k in the geopolitical section; 0xdf17f4a8 has a 61% win rate in the geopolitical section, with a total profit of $38k.

Per the rules, the criteria for a "yes" outcome is a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Hormuz Strait equal to or greater than 60, as published by the IMF PortWatch platform, on any day of this month.

The 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Hormuz Strait has been consistently below 10 since March 7. Although there was a brief uptrend in this data from March 29 to April 5, it is still far below the required 60 for the outcome.

A few hours after yesterday's ceasefire announcement, Iran's Lavan Island oil refinery (a key energy facility with a daily processing capacity of about 55,000 barrels) was attacked. Iranian officials and several analyses point to the UAE Air Force Mirage 2000-9 fighter jets as the perpetrators.

Shortly after briefly reopening the Hormuz Strait yesterday, Iranian state media announced the re-closure of the strait, citing reasons such as "Israeli continued attacks on Lebanon" and the aforementioned Lavan Island attack. Iran emphasized that "amid continuous external security threats, maritime passage safety cannot be guaranteed" and suspended the passage of oil tankers (only allowing a few "pre-coordinated" vessels).

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xc89dc66e04aa7cd9a38334cca48abf3ad45bb1f1
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1

Total Bet: $20.2k
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