A Polymarket Account Cluster Profited Around $600,000 Predicting the US-Iran Ceasefire Event

BlockBeats News, April 8th, according to on-chain analysis platform Bubblemaps monitoring, last night a group of related Polymarket accounts profited approximately $600,000 in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire-related prediction, after which these accounts collectively changed their names.

Further tracking shows that this group of accounts has been continuously betting on the ceasefire issue recently. Among them, in two prediction events on April 7th and April 15th, they respectively wagered $25,000 (corresponding to a 6% probability) and $75,000 (corresponding to a 15% probability), with a total profit of approximately $563,000 from the two transactions.

It is worth noting that about a month ago, Bubblemaps had previously flagged 4 on-chain accounts on Polymarket. These accounts not only had abnormally high winning rates, but their series of previous prediction results were also very indicative—including accurately betting on the U.S. launching a raid on Iran on February 28, 2026, Israel launching the "Rising Lion" operation in Iran on June 13, 2025, and the U.S. attacking an Iranian nuclear facility on June 21, 2025.

Although this group of accounts' performance on ceasefire predictions was not entirely accurate, their previous high-accuracy bets on events such as the Iran raid demonstrate that they may have access to more reliable information sources than the public market. In addition, the cluster's ongoing behavior of changing account names also adds speculation about their background.