Three High-Winrate Address Whale Prediction: US-Iran Ceasefire Reached This Month, with a Total Investment of $128,500

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market, 3 savvy wallets have wagered $128.5k on "Will the US and Iran reach a ceasefire this month?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 27.5%.

Among these 3 accounts, 0xb2d7cebe has an 80% win rate in the Geopolitics category, with a total profit of $178k; foodenjoyer has a total profit of $511k in the Politics category; 0x44de2a52 has a 71% win rate in the Politics category, with a total profit of $246.3k.

On April 6, Egypt, Pakistan, and other mediators proposed a plan including a 45-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump publicly praised this as a positive sign, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry promptly rejected the proposal, emphasizing Iran's quest for a permanent resolution and security guarantees, refusing any short-term ceasefire with ultimatum-like conditions. Iran counter-submitted a 10-point peace plan calling for a complete halt to hostilities, reconstruction compensation, and sanctions relief.

As of now, Trump has set the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7th. Over the weekend, he issued strongly worded warnings, and on Monday, he escalated threats during a press conference, stating that if no agreement is reached, destructive strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure such as bridges and power plants will occur on Tuesday night.

Note: Based on their trading history, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
0x44de2a52d8d2d3ddcf39d58e315a10df53ba9c08

Total Wager: $128.2k
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