According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, three smart money accounts have collectively invested $109,500 in the "Will the US invade Iran this year" event by buying "Yes", with the current probability of this event being "Yes" at 59%.
Pakistan has intervened, and both the US and Iran have received a framework to end hostilities. The first stage is an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with further discussions on a broader arrangement in the second stage. Iran has currently explicitly rejected this proposal. President Trump stated in a White House press conference that the US and Iran are still actively negotiating, but he also reiterated that if Iran does not concede by late Tuesday, he will "blow up Iran's bridges and power plants to hell."
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, the trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is a possibility of taking profits or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x1c3cdc2caa24eeb9434100f82ac32c22a26b1b01;
0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14;
0xa3d48312c4c35c66752b19670fefbd2f18419969.
