Opinion: U.S.-Iran Temporary Ceasefire Faces Multiple Harsh Realities

BlockBeats News, April 6th. Li Zixin, Assistant Researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that from the current situation, the possibility of a temporary truce between the US and Iran is not nonexistent, but indeed extremely difficult.

Even if achieved, it is more likely to be a temporary expedient rather than a reliable path to a permanent ceasefire. First of all, the core demands of both sides are actually difficult to reconcile. Iran considers control of the Strait of Hormuz and its 60% enriched uranium stockpile to be the core strategic bargaining chips for negotiations, and has made it clear that it will not give up these fundamental interests for a short-term ceasefire.

On the other hand, the US demands that Iran reopen the strait and deal with nuclear materials, essentially requiring unilateral concessions from Iran and using short-term actions to shelve Iran's core interest conditions, which touches on Iran's sovereignty and security bottom line. Secondly, the trust basis of the negotiations is very weak. Although Iran admits to exchanging relevant information with the US through friendly countries, it denies direct negotiations.

While President Trump of the US is sending negotiation signals on one hand, he continues to issue military strike ultimatums, this approach of combining military actions with negotiations is more akin to a strategy of maximum pressure and testing the other party's compromise space, rather than a genuine effort to seek reconciliation. (Jinse)