「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Proxy: Market Has Yet to Price in War Endurance, Long Consume War in America's Interest

BlockBeats News, April 5th, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin published a long article "Oil is War", pointing out that oil is not a byproduct of the US-Iran war, but the core driver of the war itself. All other economic and financial variables (stock market, bonds, cryptocurrency, Fed policy, food prices, etc.) are downstream results of the oil price. Whoever can correctly judge the trend of oil prices can understand the direction of the entire market.

Garrett Jin believes that the US-Iran war has exceeded the expectations of a "surgical airstrike" and has evolved into a protracted war. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a structural rise in oil prices, rather than a temporary surge. The war has escalated into long-term, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for over five weeks, US ground forces are gathering, with no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran's strategy is not to win but to make the war costly enough to force Washington to seek an exit.

The most likely scenario is to maintain a prolonged war of attrition, which is in America's interest—to force global buyers to turn to North American energy, while high oil prices stimulate domestic production in the US. The market has already priced in the war, but not yet its longevity. Every oil price pullback is a buying opportunity. As US ground forces are deployed and unable to achieve a quick victory, oil prices will transmit to interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, currently on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by the end of this month is 18%, by the end of May is 34%, and by the end of June is 46%.