Analysis: BTC Losses Chip Average Cost $93,600, Large Number of High Position Trapped Positions Have Cut Losses and Exited

BlockBeats News, April 5th, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the current average cost of all Bitcoin loss-making chips is now below $100,000, currently only $93,600, which means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market's average breakeven point when it returns to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut their losses and exit, lowering the average cost of the overall unrealized loss chips. This is what is commonly referred to as "shakeout."

At the same time, it was observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a 1.4 coefficient of variation with the current BTC price's 30-day average, while in the deviation coefficient of the three previous bear market bottoms. At least exceeded 2.0 (blue waveform below). When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it means that the market has entered the absolute bottom range. At this moment, the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, this round of BTC's lowest point will fall to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always be effective. This bear market may be much lighter in terms of "pain level" than any previous bear market.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, in the market related to "Bitcoin reaching $60,000 first or $80,000 first," the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, and the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.