US-Iran Conflict Causes Republican Approval Rating to Drop, Democratic Party's Chance of 'Sweep' in 2026 Midterm Elections Rises to 49%

BlockBeats News, March 29th: According to information on a related page, the probability on Polymarket of the "Democratic Party sweeping the 2026 midterm elections (i.e., simultaneously controlling both the House and the Senate)" has risen to 49%. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28th, the probability of a Democratic sweep has increased by 9%. The current probability of a Republican sweep is only 15%.

With the recent US-Iran conflict outbreak, as well as the strategic hesitation exposed by the United States in responding to the Middle East crisis, the significant decline in its influence over allies, and the economic fragility triggered by the oil inflation, voters' collective anxiety about the crisis management capability of the current government has already been reflected on the prediction market Polymarket. If the Democratic Party simultaneously controls both the House and the Senate by then, Trump will be forced to heavily rely on executive orders to implement policies, and the Democratic Party with both houses working together can even launch impeachment through the House of Representatives, followed by a high-intensity trial in the Senate.

BlockBeats Note: If a political party wins a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, that party is considered to control the House. If a political party has more than half of the seats in the Senate, or half the seats with the Vice President belonging to that party (having a deciding vote), that party is considered to control the Senate. The US midterm elections do not elect the President or Vice President but rather Congress and some state governors, etc. It is seen as a "referendum" or "barometer" on the performance of the incumbent President and their party. If the President's approval rating is low, their party often loses seats in the midterm elections.