「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: Easter Weekend or Potential Escalation Window for US-Iran Conflict, Crude Oil to Break $120 per Barrel

BlockBeats News, March 29th, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted, stating that "Easter weekend (April 5th to 6th) is considered the most likely time window for the US comprehensive upgrade action against Iran. The timeline, political factors, and military deployments all point to this juncture. If not then, it's only a matter of time. If conflict escalates: the US and Israel will launch air-ground joint strikes; Congress will adjourn, European markets will close, and by the time London opens on Tuesday, the world order may have changed."

Once the chain reaction of war begins: the Strait of Hormuz will actually close (shipping will stop due to insurance failure); Brent crude oil will surpass $120 per barrel; US 10-year Treasury yield will rise above 4.6%; within weeks, the global bond market may evaporate by $2.5 trillion; the banking system will face losses close to the 2022 crisis level; no clear ceasefire path for the conflict.

The Fed will face a dilemma, controlling inflation (requires rate hikes), guarding against a banking crisis (requires rate cuts), and financing the war (requires keeping rates low) are mutually exclusive. Historical experience shows that inflation targets are often sacrificed during wartime. The Fed will maintain rates around 3.5%-3.75%, implementing "financial repression" through implicit liquidity and regulatory tools to make real rates negative to erode debt.

Nominally, the stock market may rise, but real purchasing power will decrease. Energy, defense, and commodities will outperform; the tech and consumer sectors will face reassessment. War is not the solution to the debt problem but a manifestation of the debt issue. The real risk is not on the battlefield but in the bond market—when demand weakens in Treasury auctions, the system will face fundamental changes."