Bitunix Analyst: Energy control, monetary tightening, and escalating war risks create a mismatch, pushing liquidity into a compression range

BlockBeats News, March 26th. Global markets are simultaneously facing three misaligned forces. On one hand, the U.S. is easing E15 gasoline restrictions and accelerating access to oil and gold resources from Venezuela, signaling efforts to suppress energy prices and regain control over supply chains. On the other hand, rising rate expectations in Japan and a global bond sell-off indicate that markets are repricing inflation and tightening paths. At the same time, Middle East tensions continue to escalate beneath a surface of “negotiation narratives,” with increased U.S. troop deployment and firm responses from Iran pushing risks around energy transport and control of key straits further outward.

This combination — suppressing energy prices, tightening liquidity, and amplifying geopolitical risk — is effectively disrupting traditional pricing frameworks. Energy is increasingly politicized, rate markets are losing easing expectations, and safe-haven assets like gold are being driven by physical demand rather than purely financial flows. This signals a broader shift where capital is reallocating from financial assets toward physical and strategic resources, marking a transition from liquidity expansion to redistribution.

For the crypto market, BTC is no longer a narrative driver but a passive reflection of risk appetite. Liquidation heatmaps show price currently compressed within the 69k–72k range. The 72k area above holds a dense cluster of short positions and liquidation pressure, forming a key resistance zone, while the 69k–70k range below continues to see liquidity absorption and long positioning, acting as passive support. The structure reflects a clear two-sided standoff, where price movements are driven by liquidation dynamics rather than directional conviction.

As long as macro uncertainty persists, markets are unlikely to establish a one-sided pricing trend. BTC is more likely to remain within this high-liquidity compression zone, repeatedly sweeping both sides to facilitate position redistribution. A decisive directional move will depend on whether these three factors align — uncontrolled energy risks, confirmed monetary tightening, and escalation in the Middle East from “threat” to actual disruption.