4 new accounts wager $35.9k that the US and Iran will agree to a ceasefire by April 15th.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 new accounts have collectively invested $35,900 in buying “Yes” for “Will the US and Iran reach a ceasefire before April 15.” Currently, the probability of “Yes” for this event is 30%.

Recent macro analyses from multiple sources have indicated a low likelihood of resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Recently, Trump issued a “48-hour ultimatum” to Iran on Truth Social, warning that if Iran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US military will “destroy” Iran's power plants starting with the largest one directly. In response, the Iranian military made a strong statement, threatening to completely block the strait if energy facilities are attacked and to retaliatorily destroy all US-related energy and desalination infrastructure in the Middle East.

In this macro environment, blogger X itslirrato pointed out that the behavior of these 4 new accounts is suspicious. On-chain data shows that these accounts almost simultaneously completed fund deposits within the same time frame, and their subsequent trading behavior is highly consistent.

Accounts:
0x0b6d597962e5af2c5b193111791d5e3d58f845ff;
0xfc17740ff54128a6fa24945179bc4500b3000ca1;
0x6bb09f8a0d2ffda1b5d5b4dc5867aa5fe22d31c4;
0x89de4218167734e05fbec773041e694171e476f0.