"The 'Stock Market Wizard' Trump is back in the game, offering soothing words 48 hours before the deadline"

BlockBeats News, March 23rd, U.S. President Trump issued a high-profile 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Truth Social over the weekend: "If Iran does not unconditionally and peacefully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the U.S. military will strike and completely destroy all of Iran's power plants, starting with the largest one!" This "hardcore" statement quickly sent global oil prices soaring, with Brent crude oil surging at one point, escalating market panic and putting pressure on the U.S. stock market. In response, Iran took a tough stance, stating that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would retaliate against all U.S. and Israeli energy and water facilities in the Middle East.

However, just on the eve of the ultimatum deadline, before the U.S. stock market opened on Monday, Trump's attitude took a dramatic 180-degree turn: he ordered a halt to the bombing of Iran's power plants and announced a temporary ceasefire of 5 days to leave room for negotiations.

This "tough first, then soft" operation instantly reversed the market, with oil prices falling and the stock market rebounding. Investors familiar with Trump's style had long ago summarized this pattern as "TACO Trades" (Trump Always Chickens Out). As early as during the tariff war in 2025, this abbreviation became popular on Wall Street: Trump often started by tough talk to create panic, drive down asset prices, and then "chickened out" or postponed, leading to a rapid market rebound and profit-taking. The Iran incident is seen as the latest version of TACO: first applying extreme pressure, causing oil prices/panic assets to skyrocket, then quickly softening, triggering short covering and a rebound in risk assets.

Some analysts have pointed out that this "gapping up and selling off" trading strategy has become one of Trump's signature styles in his second term, especially when geopolitics and trade negotiations are running concurrently. Currently, the U.S.-Iran war has entered its 4th week, the Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open, there are clear signs of ground troop mobilization, but whether Trump's "halt bombing + 5-day ceasefire" is just another round of TACO or a genuine shift towards diplomatic resolution remains to be seen in the next 48 hours.