4 Smart Money accounts contributed $54,000 believing that the US and Iran will not reach a ceasefire by April 15th.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money accounts have collectively invested $54,000 in buying "No" on "Will the US and Iran reach a ceasefire before April 15th", with the current probability of "Yes" at 31%.

Although both the US and Iran have laid out their ceasefire conditions, external analysis generally believes that the likelihood of mutual compromise is extremely low. Iran is currently demonstrating a no-backing-down hardline stance, while Trump is facing a serious domestic political countdown. With the start of the May US midterm election primaries approaching, Trump's approval rating has been on a downward trend since the outbreak of this military conflict.

Amid dim ceasefire expectations, preparations for the protraction of the conflict are substantially advancing. The US government is actively seeking additional special military funding from Congress to maintain high military deployment and strike expenditures in the Middle East. US Secretary of State Rubio emphasizes the need to thoroughly contain the opponent's threat capability strategically, US Defense Secretary Hegseth reaffirms the US military's determination to maintain military pressure, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent continues to push for maximum sanctions to cut off Iran's core funding.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event, and may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x275575bb11522eb29f82fe0a601d7c4dc94b5016
0x436f969d99c90191fbc2c629e6b7a1b754402c7f
0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647;
0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135.