Bitunix Analyst: Policy Anchor Weakens as FX and Energy Tighten Liquidity, BTC Retests Support Zones

BlockBeats News, March 19th. the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with the dot plot still pointing to only one rate cut this year. Only one dissenting vote was recorded, signaling that internal divergence has narrowed. However, the Middle East situation has been explicitly incorporated as a source of uncertainty, shifting the policy framework from one driven by domestic inflation and employment to one increasingly influenced by external shocks. As a result, markets are repricing the rate path, forming a blurred zone of「shrinking rate-cut expectations + rising tail risk of hikes.」

At the same time, the Bank of Japan also held rates steady, while the yen approached the critical 160 intervention threshold. The U.S. dollar remains strong, supported by both rate expectations and safe-haven demand. Japanese equities and bonds are under pressure, while capital continues to flow back into the dollar and energy-related assets. The combination of FX pressure and rising oil prices is effectively tightening global liquidity.

Higher oil prices are reinforcing inflation expectations, placing the Fed in a stagflationary dilemma: cutting rates risks fueling inflation, while hiking rates could further suppress economic growth. This has led to a misalignment in probability structures—at times, the market has priced a higher probability of rate hikes than cuts—indicating that risk premiums are being repriced, with policy uncertainty becoming the dominant variable.

In the crypto market, BTC quickly pulled back after testing liquidity above 74K. The short-side liquidity between 74K–76.5K has not been fully cleared, while the 71K–72K structural pivot has been broken. Passive long positioning is emerging in the 69K–70K zone, with 67.5K acting as a prior accumulation area and potential secondary liquidity sweep zone. The current pullback reflects a rebalancing process following the release of high-level liquidity, with the key focus on whether the 69K area can transition from passive support to active absorption.

Overall, the market is shifting from a「single rate-cut narrative」to a three-factor structure driven by policy, energy, and FX dynamics. BTC has entered a phase of liquidity redistribution within a range, where the short-term focus is not direction, but which side of the liquidation chain will be triggered and expand first.