A certain Smart Money address has invested $12,000, predicting that "Ukraine will not give up joining NATO this year."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a geopolitical topic received 502 trades, with a Smart Money address boasting a 69% success rate investing $12,000 in "no" for the question "Will Ukraine agree not to join NATO this year?", with the current probability of "yes" at 24%.

With the Trump administration actively pushing for ceasefire negotiations, Washington may leverage military and financial aid to Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into accepting a peace framework that includes "postponing NATO membership." At the same time, Russia has consistently made blocking Ukraine's NATO accession a non-negotiable red line and a core demand in the talks.

Currently, Ukraine's constitution explicitly includes joining the EU and NATO, forming the cornerstone of the current government's "Victory Plan." After paying a heavy toll in the war, publicly signing an agreement renouncing NATO membership faces significant domestic public opinion and political resistance in Ukraine, making it extremely challenging for the incumbent government to make such a concession internally.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at some point after opening a position.

Address:
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2

Total Investment: $12k
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