Institutional Outlook on Federal Reserve Rate Path: Room for Rate Cuts is now quite limited, with only one rate cut possible later this year

BlockBeats News, March 18th, Beijing Time Tomorrow at 2 am, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. The market currently fully expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, shifting its focus to Fed Chairman Powell's remarks during the monetary policy press conference. Institutional previews are as follows:

1. Bloomberg: The room for further interest rate cuts is quite limited. It is expected that the Fed will implement the last 25 basis point interest rate cut of this cycle at the June meeting.

2. Goldman Sachs: It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December respectively. If the labor market softens earlier and more severely than expected, it may still cut rates earlier.

3. Deutsche Bank: It is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged this week. The sharply rising geopolitical uncertainty and the inflation risk triggered by the surging oil prices are eating away at the room for rate cuts.

4. Nomura Credit: It is expected to stay put by the end of the year. Some members may argue for ignoring the short-term inflation surge driven by energy, but most members tend to be more cautious.

5. ING Bank: Under Powell's leadership, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance. If Brainard takes office, the Fed may behave more aggressively, pushing for rate cuts to counter economic downturn.

6. TS Lombard: Labor market concerns are resurfacing. If the energy shock subsides in a few weeks, coupled with the emergence of tariff inflation base effects in the second half of the year and a rapid slowdown in rent inflation, it is still possible to cut rates twice this year. (FX678)