Analyst: Crypto Market FOMO Completely Eliminated, But Sell Pressure Not Yet Exhausted

BlockBeats News, March 18th, on-chain data analyst Axel released the latest research report pointing out that the Bitcoin market overheating phenomenon has been completely eliminated, but selling pressure has not yet eased, and the market has not shown a clear reversal signal.

The report shows that the MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin's valuation overheating, has dropped 74% from a cycle high of 2.603 in October 2025 to 0.674, far below the mean (1.72) and the first standard deviation band (3.55), confirming that the valuation bubble has been completely cleared. The current range of 0.5-1.0 corresponds to a neutral zone in the cycle, with the market cap only moderately exceeding the realized cap.

However, the aSOPR (7-day moving average), which reflects market participants' profit status, has been below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, with the latest value at 0.9926, indicating that the market is still experiencing loss selling. Since the last time it crossed above the 1.0 mark on January 21, 2026, this indicator has remained unable to return to the profit selling range.

Axel emphasized that 1.0 is the key dividing line between loss selling and profit selling patterns. Before the aSOPR can stabilize above 1.0 for multiple consecutive trading days, any rebound may face selling pressure. The key issue in the current market is not whether Bitcoin is cheap, but whether the selling pressure has been exhausted, and at least for now, the answer is still negative.