Iran and Maduro Event Nets Over $760K Account Puts in $246K Bet US-Iran Ceasefire Will Happen

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, there are 2 accounts that have collectively earned over $760,000 in profit by leveraging the Iran/Maduro event, with a total investment of $246,000 to buy the "Yes" option for the potential ceasefire between the US and Iran at various time points. The current probability for "Will there be a ceasefire between the US and Iran before April 30th" is 40%. One of the accounts had previously incurred a total loss of $200,000 in a related market regarding a US-Iran ceasefire.

Both the US and Iran are currently facing unsustainable strategic attrition. On the Iranian side, after enduring extreme pressure such as attacks on key energy infrastructure, widespread domestic internet outages, and shortages of goods, there has been a substantial softening in the official stance. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and senior officials have recently sent signals through backchannels multiple times, indicating a willingness to engage in comprehensive negotiations without infringing on sovereignty.

While the US has outwardly maintained a high-pressure stance, internally, there is wavering willingness to continue escalating the conflict. On one hand, a full obliteration of Iranian oil exports would directly trigger a global surge in oil prices, which is not in line with the current US interest in controlling inflation. On the other hand, internal divisions regarding Middle East policy are becoming increasingly public.

Yesterday, Joe Kent, Director of the US Counterterrorism Office, suddenly announced his resignation and stated in his tweet, "I cannot in good conscience support the war that Iran is engaged in. Iran does not pose an imminent threat to our country, clearly, we are waging this war because of pressure from Israel and its powerful US lobbying groups."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at certain points after opening positions.

Accounts:
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b;
0x44de2a52d8d2d3ddcf39d58e315a10df53ba9c08.