According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market, over the past twelve hours, an address with a 70% win rate in the Middle East sector placed a $4900 bet on "Trump will announce the cessation of military action against Iran before May" with an average entry price of 77.7¢, now priced at 77¢.
It is important to note that the settlement of this market is based on a public and official announcement by Trump, the U.S. government, or the military declaring an end to military action against Iran, without requiring acknowledgment from other parties such as Israel or Iran.
President Trump has once again stated that the war will end "very soon," with the specific end date to be determined by him. Meanwhile, Iran claims to be ready for a "long-term attrition war that will destroy the entire U.S. economy." Iran has also warned that it will begin attacking banks in the Middle East region associated with the United States.
Iran has launched new attacks on the supply of goods and infrastructure in the Middle East region, overshadowing the positive news of the U.S. and IEA releasing oil reserves, causing oil prices to soar.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is believed that this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening the position.
Account: 0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a.
