Garrett Jin: Risk Assets to Remain Under Pressure Until Reliable Path through the Strait of Hormuz Reopens

BlockBeats News, March 10th, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on social media stating, "At the $85/barrel level before the March 9th surge, the pricing of Brent crude oil reflected a supply disruption lasting from several days to two weeks. At $119.5/barrel, the market had already started to factor in the possibility of supply destruction, but the repricing of the full duration is just beginning.

The impact of the Hormuz Crisis is transmitted through independent and mutually reinforcing levels, resulting not only in a rise in risk-off sentiment but also in a systemic shift in cross-asset correlations, geographic risk distribution, and market willingness to price in the duration of extreme events. Until a reliable path for reopening the Strait of Hormuz emerges, risk assets will remain under pressure — even if the crisis eases at that time, the reconstruction of insurance mechanisms alone will take 3 to 6 weeks.

The bullish scenario for risk assets is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reaching a ceasefire through a successful summit, or other potential positive events; while the downside scenario (diplomatic failure, prolonged strait closure) lacks historical pricing references. In either case, the recent trend is a duration premium surge in oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations, with risk assets remaining under pressure until viable solutions emerge."