Iran Conflict Prop Bet High-Profit Account Puts in $13,000 to Predict "Conflict Will End Within 3 Months"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, an account that made over $450k in profit participated with a total investment of $13k in a February 28 Iran conflict-related market to buy options on the resolution of the trilateral conflict involving the US and Iran. Within this, the account invested $6.7k in the option "Iran will end conflict with Israel/US by March 15," with an average entry price of 6.2¢, and the current probability of this option is 9%.

In the past 24 hours, U.S. President Trump, in public statements, has repeatedly hinted at the near accomplishment of military actions aimed at Iran, using conclusive language such as "the war is over" and celebrating victory.

Market observers believe that the U.S. government's attempt to declare victory and swiftly de-escalate the situation is largely driven by concerns over the sharp rise in international oil prices. Prior escalation in geopolitical tensions and the crisis of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a significant surge in crude oil prices, directly contradicting the core economic goals of the Trump administration, prompting a clear willingness to seek peace and ceasefire at this stage.

Account:
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b

Total Position: $13k
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