According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, there are 2 accounts that previously profited over $100k by betting on "US-Iran Strike," with a total investment of $68k to buy "US and Iran Will Reach a Ceasefire This Month," currently with a ceasefire probability of 56%.
Among them, dicedicedice is a new account registered just hours before the US-Israel strike action. Its first trade occurred at 08:07 Beijing time, with the last buy-in at 08:35. Three hours later, the market probability surged, and this account ultimately made a 4x profit, earning $120k. Another account, wan123, bet on the US strike against Iran at an average price of 10.8c, making a profit of $201.2k.
Currently, both the Israeli Defense Forces and the US side have announced that the clearance operation against the senior Iranian leadership is largely complete. Trump revealed that the "new leadership" of Iran has expressed willingness to resume negotiations, to which he agreed to dialogue, bluntly stating that some of the Iranian officials who participated in negotiations in recent weeks are "no longer there."
However, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif's statement remains tough and pessimistic. He emphasized that Iran's military retaliatory capability remains intact, and the retaliation speed will be faster than during the June conflict last year. Regarding talks, Zarif expressed deep skepticism, accusing the American side of repeatedly launching attacks when negotiations were progressing, turning diplomatic mediation into "a very painful experience."
Accounts:
0xdde15ebd95330ce69136dc0ccd810d22382e02c5
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Total Opening: $68k
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