Arthur Hayes: If Trump Ups Ante on Iran, Fed May Have to Ease, Positive for Bitcoin

BlockBeats News, March 2nd, Arthur Hayes' latest article titled "iOS Warfare" was published, taking advantage of the US's escalation of military action against Iran to analyze the potential interplay between war, Federal Reserve policy, and the crypto market.

Hayes pointed out that since the Gulf War in 1990 and the "War on Terror" in 2001, whenever the US launched or escalated military actions in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve often responded in the subsequent stages by cutting interest rates or providing liquidity to offset the economic impact. He believes that if the Trump administration continues to escalate the Iran issue, fiscal pressure and financial market volatility could provide a "political cover" for the Federal Reserve to further lower interest rates or restart an easing policy.

Hayes stated that his logic is very simple: the longer the war, the higher the cost, the greater the likelihood of the Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy, and cheaper, more abundant dollar liquidity usually benefits risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In terms of trading strategies, he advised investors to "wait for signals," meaning to increase their allocation to Bitcoin and high-risk crypto assets (such as HYPE) only after the Federal Reserve clearly announces a rate cut or initiates a new round of easing.