A high-probability address bets $10,000 that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz this month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, an account that previously accurately predicted the timing of the 2025 US-Israeli strike on Iran and profited $150.7k has wagered $10k on "Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz by March 31st," with the current probability of this blockade being 59%.

During the 2025 US-Israel joint airstrike on Iran, Iran did not choose to block the Strait of Hormuz: the scale of the strike was relatively contained, and Iran, in order to maintain its last external financial lifeline (oil exports) and avoid completely angering the Gulf states and the international community that rely on this waterway, preserved its bargaining chip and did not resort to this ultimate option.

With yesterday's unprecedented joint airstrike by the US and Israel, coupled with the confirmation of the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Iranian regime faces a moment of existential crisis. Facing America's explicit attempt at regime change and lacking the ultimate restraint of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hardliners, Iran may use the threat of blocking the global energy chokepoint responsible for about 20% of global oil consumption as a retaliatory measure.

Per the settlement rules of this market, Iran does not need to implement an absolute physical blockade. As long as Iran "completely stops or severely restricts" international maritime traffic through the strait before March 31st, this option will settle as "yes."

Account:
0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14

Total Position: $10k
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