According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability on the Polymarket prediction market of "Israel or the US carrying out a strike on Iranian nuclear targets before February 28" has risen to 87%.
Based on reports from various media outlets and official sources, today's joint military strike by the US and Israel against Iran directly targeted multiple key nuclear sites associated with Iran's nuclear program, including Isfahan (near the Natanz nuclear facility complex) and Qom (the Fordow underground nuclear facility) among other areas. Officials from the US and Israel have explicitly stated that one of the core objectives of this strike was to "disable missile and nuclear capabilities."
The specific settlement rules for this market stipulate that the US and Israel must carry out kinetic military strikes (such as bombing raids, missile strikes, drone attacks, or ground special forces kinetic operations) on Iranian facilities used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear materials.
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