Xinhua News Agency exposes Iran's missile strike on Israel, retaliation probability surges to 95%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Will Iran attack Israel before February 28" has surged to 95%.

Xinhua News Agency just released a breaking news stating that the Israeli military has detected missiles launched by Iran towards it.

Per the settlement rules of this market, any missile, drone, or airstrike initiated by Iran must "substantially hit" Israeli mainland territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, excluding territorial waters). Artillery fire, ground invasion, or cyberattacks do not qualify.

Interceptions are not counted: If a missile or drone is intercepted by air defense systems, even if the intercepted fragments fall on Israeli territory or cause damage, they cannot be used as the basis for a "Yes" settlement.
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