Bitunix Analyst: US-Japan Joint Intervention Brewing, Rate Cut Expectations Resurface Swings

BlockBeats News, February 24th. The market focus shifted to the dual variables of exchange rates and interest rates. According to Nikkei News, the U.S. Treasury Department took the initiative in January to support the yen through a "exchange rate check" and is prepared to conduct joint intervention with Japan if necessary. This move, led by Treasury Secretary Besent, comes against the backdrop of increased political uncertainty ahead of the Japanese general election and systemic risk concerns as the yen approaches the 160 level. Although U.S.-Japan officials have not officially confirmed intervention actions, such exchange rate checks are usually seen as a substantive market precursor.

Meanwhile, there was a re-emergence of internal dissent at the Fed regarding the March policy path. Governor Waller stated that if the 13,000 new jobs added in January continue into February, it would support a pause in rate cuts; if the data weakens, there would be a leaning towards a 25 basis point cut. The attitude shift of officials previously leaning towards a dovish stance has made market pricing for the March meeting more "data-dependent." While the tariff variable has been partially rejected by the Supreme Court, Waller believes its impact on the monetary policy path is limited, with the current focus still on labor market resilience.

On a cross-market funding level, expectations of exchange rate intervention and interest rate path oscillation coexist, increasing short-term volatility. If the yen receives support, the U.S. dollar index may face temporary pressure, and funds will rapidly rotate between safe-haven currencies and risk assets; if rate cut expectations are postponed again, it will compress the valuation elasticity of risk assets.

Regarding the crypto market, BTC has shown a downward structure. After falling back from above 67,000, bullish liquidity has been temporarily cleared out, with the 62,000-64,000 range below being a dense liquidation zone; there is still a concentration of short positions around the 66,000 mark. If the U.S. dollar retreats coincides with an improvement in liquidity expectations, a short-term rebound testing liquidity above may occur; conversely, if the tight rate expectations persist, the structure is still mainly characterized by weak oscillation and repeated testing of the lower boundary. The core variable remains whether funds are willing to re-establish risk exposure under macro uncertainty.