The US and Iran are caught in a "no war, no peace" stalemate, with both sides believing they have the upper hand.

BlockBeats News, April 26th. After the temporary suspension of the US-Iran peace negotiation plan, Iran and the United States have entered an awkward "No War, No Peace" stalemate. Both sides believe they can endure longer under economic and military pressure: Iranian officials are confident that they can withstand the economic pain of war better than the Trump administration, while Trump believes the US can wear down Iran through measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Although there has been a recent ceasefire, the lack of a permanent agreement has left the situation in a strategic limbo.

Former Iranian government officials and conservative media have likened the current situation to an extension of last year's June 12th war with the US—a war that ended but with no lasting guarantees. While both sides have stepped back from the high cost of full-scale war, they still rely on a logic of force and pressure, which may be more dangerous than a short-term war. Mediation efforts by Pakistan to restart the ceasefire have been slow, posing a serious threat to the global economy, especially the oil supply, and creating long-term uncertainty for all parties and Middle East stability.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "US-Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement" is only 2% by April 30th, 32% by May 31st, and 48% by June 30th.