Polymarket: Probability of "Court Orders Trump to Refund Tariffs" Being Ruled Out Surpasses 80%

BlockBeats News, February 22nd, according to the prediction platform Polymarket data, the market currently believes that by July 2026, there is a 19% probability that the court will order Trump to refund the tariffs, while the probability of denial has risen to 82%.

BlockBeats previously reported that on February 20th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled by a 6-3 vote that Trump's trade tax policy was illegal. The Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not authorize the President to impose tariffs. It upheld a lower court ruling of the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that deemed Trump's tariffs illegal.

Trump later called the Supreme Court ruling a "disgrace." Trump stated that after the ruling, he had alternative tariff plans.