Tom Lee Analyst: ETH to drop to $1367 minimum, but implied 12-month return of 81%

BlockBeats News, February 20th, Sean Farrell, Digital Asset Strategist at Fundstrat under Tom Lee, published the latest Ethereum analysis. The current average cost of ETH is $2241, while the current price is $1934, with investors facing an average loss of 22%. Comparing the current decline with the historical lows, in 2022, investors' average maximum loss was 39%, and in 2025, the average maximum loss was 21%. Applying these two data points to the current $2241 average cost implies that ETH could drop to a low of $1367 or $1770.

According to the analysis of the percentile of realized losses since 2017 for future returns, the current average loss is at a historically high level of 9%, indicating a relatively high level of loss. The implied 12-month return is +81%. This suggests that the price of Ethereum is approaching a bottom. Looking ahead, Ethereum's risk/reward ratio appears to be positive.

Tom Lee himself retweeted the analysis, stating that this helps to consider investor fund flows and position allocation near the bottom.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Ethereum surpassing its all-time high in 2026 is now only 19%, down from the previous 54%.