Tom Lee Analyst: ETH to Dip to $1367, But Implies 81% Return in Next 12 Months

BlockBeats News, February 20th, Sean Farrell, Digital Asset Strategist at Fundstrat, under the supervision of Tom Lee, released the latest Ethereum analysis. The current average cost of ETH is $2241, while the current price is $1934, meaning investors are at an average loss of 22%. Comparing the current decline to historical lows, in 2022, investors' average maximum loss was 39%, and in 2025, the average maximum loss was 21%. Applying these two data points to the current average cost of $2241 implies that ETH could drop to a low of $1367 or $1770.

Based on the analysis of the percentile of realized losses since 2017 for future returns, the current average loss is at a historically high level of 9%, indicating a high level of loss. The implied 12-month return is +81%. This suggests that the Ethereum price is approaching a bottom. In the long run, Ethereum's risk/reward ratio appears to be positive.

Tom Lee himself retweeted the analysis, stating that this helps consider investor fund flows and position allocation near the bottom.