This Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Minutes and PCE Data in the Spotlight, Supreme Court to Speak on Trump Tariff Case

BlockBeats News, February 15th, the global market will welcome a "data bombardment" week this week. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting on Thursday at 03:00, and the market will look for more clues about the rate cut path in 2026; the initial value of the US GDP for the fourth quarter and the core PCE price index, released on Friday at 21:30, will take center stage as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. If the PCE reading is higher than expected, it may affect the pace of policy easing throughout the year.

On the central bank front, several Federal Reserve officials will speak frequently, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to stand pat, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may emphasize the upside risks to inflation.

In terms of asset performance, spot gold remains volatile at high levels, initially plummeting sharply last week before rebounding and closing higher; crude oil experienced a surge followed by a retreat, with market rumors that OPEC+ may resume production increases in April; the movement of the US dollar is a key variable, and if it does not hit a new low or if it remains relatively strong in the context of an impending tariff ruling. Meanwhile, there is a renewed demand for US Treasuries, which may trigger a new round of asset reallocation.

On the major events front, the Supreme Court of the United States will issue opinions on February 20th, including a ruling on cases related to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy. If the ruling is unfavorable or has a significant impact on the relevant tariff measures, it could affect global trade and market sentiment.

On the corporate front, the earnings season is coming to a close. Walmart will report its fourth-quarter fiscal year performance, with the market focusing on key metrics such as e-commerce growth, AI applications, and tariff impacts. Its guidance may have a significant impact on retail and overall market sentiment.