Benchmark revises Coinbase price target down by 37% to $267, still maintains "Buy" rating

BlockBeats News, February 15th, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer lowered Coinbase's (COIN) price target from $421 to $267, a 37% decrease, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. This adjustment came after the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell below expectations in both revenue and profit due to the overall crypto market downturn.

Palmer revised the 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate down by 21% to $5.34, with the first-quarter 2026 EPS expected to be $0.96, approximately 19% below market consensus. However, based on the current price of around $164 per share, the new target price still implies about a 60% upside.

The earnings report revealed that Coinbase's net revenue in Q4 2025 was $1.71 billion, a 5% decrease from the previous quarter; GAAP net loss was $667 million, mainly due to an unrealized loss of $718 million on the crypto asset portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments. Despite short-term pressure, Palmer noted that the company's business structure is becoming "more diverse and resilient":

• Institutional trading revenue increased by 37% to $185 million, benefiting from the acquisition of the derivatives platform Deribit for $2.9 billion in August last year;
• Stablecoin revenue grew by 3% to $364 million, with the USDC average balance reaching a record high;
• Subscription and services revenue reached $727.4 million, accounting for approximately 43% of net revenue, with annual subscription and services revenue growing by 23% year-on-year to $2.8 billion.

The company expects first-quarter 2026 subscription and services revenue to be between $550 million and $630 million, with transaction revenue totaling approximately $420 million as of February 10. As of the end of 2025, the company held $11.3 billion in cash and had repurchased $1.7 billion in stock in the fourth quarter and early February, with the board approving an additional $2 billion for stock repurchases.