The most vocal proponent of the "four-year cycle is dead," Bitwise CIO, now acknowledges crypto is in a bear market due to the "four-year cycle."

BlockBeats News, February 11th, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, said in an interview with CNBC that the "four-year cycle" is the reason for crypto entering a bear market, a phenomenon that has occurred three times in the cryptocurrency market. "People always want to find a single culprit for the current Bitcoin pullback. But there isn't such a single villain," he said on Monday on the "ETF Edge" show.

Hougan believes that investors are currently more inclined to allocate funds to other popular investment targets, including gold and artificial intelligence stocks, rather than cryptocurrency. "There is some quantum computing risk. The market is also concerned about Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh," he said, "In a bear market, all of these factors will be magnified."

However, Hougan believes that the weakness of Bitcoin should not ultimately disrupt the momentum of ETFs focused on cryptocurrency. He believes that what currently dominates the crypto market is a "self-fulfilling prophecy."

"There is good news beneath the surface, it's just being realized more slowly. Therefore, I don't think this financialization of Bitcoin fundamentally changes its scarcity argument," said Hougan. "It may change some intraday trends or short-term trading dynamics, but it will not change a fundamental fact: there are only 21 million bitcoins in total. All derivative demand must ultimately flow back to the spot markets."

It is worth noting that Matt Hougan had loudly proclaimed in the latter half of 2025 (especially around December) through social media, blogs, podcasts, and interviews that the "four-year cycle is dead." At that time, the Bitcoin price was still high, and Hougan's rhetoric was optimistic and institutionalized, emphasizing "this time is different"—the cycle was "killed" by institutional funds and a mature market.