Organization: Anticipates that "Mini Nonfarm" growth will slow down and will be significantly below January nonfarm payroll number

BlockBeats News, February 4th: Dave Sloan, Senior Economist for Continuum Economics in North America, stated that the ADP employment report for January is expected to show an increase of 30,000 jobs, down from 41,000 in December.

At the same time, it is expected that the ADP report will significantly lag behind the January nonfarm payroll data, as the overall nonfarm payroll employment for January is projected to grow by 85,000 jobs. While the December ADP data was broadly in line with the nonfarm payroll data, recent ADP data has been consistently weaker, with ADP numbers averaging 22,000 below nonfarm payroll over the past six months. Although the gap has narrowed compared to September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. Nonfarm payroll employment in January is expected to rebound from recent softness in the retail sector, with this factor having a relatively small impact on ADP data.

It is expected that the January ADP sectoral data will show a slight improvement in the goods-producing sector, especially in construction, but a slowdown in the pace of job growth in the service sector. The recent trend of ADP data underperforming nonfarm payroll is most evident in the service sector, with significant disparities in data from the education and healthcare industries. (Jin10)