Analysis: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Effect is Weakening, Policy Forces are Reshaping Transaction Logic

BlockBeats News, January 16th, the market is entering a new phase dominated by policy signals, the four-year cycle model long seen as a core narrative for Bitcoin is weakening. Analysis indicates that the impact of politics and macro policies on price is gradually surpassing on-chain factors such as halving.

Despite the strong performance of the US stock market in 2025, Bitcoin has shown a relative lag, reflecting a market driven more by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. Under the traditional model, the early 2026 should mark the end of the cycle, but the current trend shows investors are postponing this stage, with policy factors taking the lead.

Institutional analysis believes that pre-election fiscal stimulus, blurred lines between fiscal and monetary policy are creating an environment similar to "financial repression." Against the backdrop of high government spending and suppressed real interest rates, the attractiveness of traditional bonds and credit is waning, while the allocation value of digital assets is rising.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market generally believes that the trajectory of Bitcoin will increasingly depend on policy direction and regulatory progress, especially the US encrypted market structure legislation. Analysts point out that the institutional demand brought by ETFs remains a long-term support, but policy changes will determine whether institutional funds will further enter the market.