Ark Invest: Bitcoin Entering Institutional and Low Volatility Regime, Still Expects Bitcoin to Reach At Least $300K by 2030

BlockBeats News, January 15th, according to CoinDesk's report, Ark Invest analyst and portfolio manager David Puell stated that the next phase of Bitcoin will no longer depend primarily on whether investors "believe" in this asset, but more on their willingness to allocate what proportion of exposure, and through which investment tools to participate. With the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 and the rapid development of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has crossed a significant threshold and entered an institutionalized stage.

The combined holdings of ETFs and digital asset treasuries have reached approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, far exceeding expectations, and have become one of the main driving forces affecting price trends in 2025, a trend that may continue until 2026. With the amount of Bitcoin absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries exceeding expectations, the market is entering a more institutionalized, lower volatility phase.

Ark Invest continues to be confident in its long-term Bitcoin valuation framework. According to Ark's published valuation model, its forecast for the price of Bitcoin in 2030 is "Bitcoin reaching about $300,000 in a bear market scenario; about $710,000 in a base case scenario; and about $1.5 million in a bull market scenario." David Puell stated that driven by the "digital gold" narrative and institutional adoption, the company still expects Bitcoin to reach between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030.

David Puell stated that as volatility decreases and retracement levels narrow, in the next cycle, Bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors with lower risk preferences.