Bitwise CIO: If ETF Demand Persists Long Term, Bitcoin Will See Parabolic Upsurge

BlockBeats News, January 14th, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan posted, stating, "If ETF demand continues for a long period, the price of Bitcoin will rise parabolically. This can be seen as a glimpse from the movement of gold in 2025. The prices of gold and Bitcoin are fundamentally determined by supply and demand. The mainstream narrative believes that the surge in gold in 2025 (rising by about 65% for the whole year) was due to massive purchases by central banks, altering the supply-demand structure. But history tells us that Bitcoin is currently going through this process."

Central bank purchases of gold surged in 2022, against the backdrop of the U.S. freezing and seizing Russia's Treasury assets. Annual central bank gold purchases jumped from about 500 tons to about 1000 tons, and have since remained at this high level. These purchasing behaviors did indeed alter the supply-demand balance, but did not immediately reflect in the price. Gold only rose by 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024. It wasn't until 2025 that the gold price truly entered a "parabolic" upward trend. The reason is that in the initial few years, central banks' additional demand was mainly absorbed by willing sellers of gold; but as time passed, sellers gradually dried up. When demand continues to exist, and the available chips for sale diminish, the price starts to soar rapidly.

The same logic is now appearing in Bitcoin and ETFs. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024, ETF buying has exceeded 100% of the new Bitcoin supply. However, the price has not shown a parabolic rise yet, because existing holders are still willing to sell. If ETF demand can be sustained (which I think it will), then these sellers will eventually "run out of ammunition."