Bitunix Analyst: Supreme Court Ruling on Trump-Era Tariffs Looms — Policy Risk May Reshape Global Asset Pricing

BlockBeats News, January 9: the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a pivotal opinion on whether the Trump administration’s global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are constitutional. A ruling against the tariffs could dismantle the existing tariff framework and potentially trigger over $100 billion in import-duty refunds, with material implications for U.S. fiscal balances, inflation dynamics, and the global trade order.

At the core of the case is whether the president can invoke a “national emergency” to bypass Congress and exercise taxing authority. Lower courts have already ruled this practice an overreach of executive power, and signals from Supreme Court oral arguments suggest skepticism. Prediction markets currently place the probability of the tariffs being overturned above 70%, sharply elevating policy uncertainty.

From a macro perspective, invalidating the tariffs would lower effective U.S. import tax rates, easing inflationary pressures and corporate cost burdens, but could also widen fiscal deficits and strengthen expectations for an earlier Federal Reserve pivot toward easing. Conversely, if the tariffs are upheld, the dollar may find short-term support, though medium-term risks to consumption and growth would persist.

Bitunix Analyst View:

Regardless of the outcome, this is not a narrow policy event but a major test of policy predictability. Crypto markets are particularly sensitive to such macro shocks. The tariff ruling will directly affect inflation expectations, USD direction, and global risk appetite—potentially amplifying volatility across Bitcoin and major digital assets.