2 traders bet $13,200 that the Suez Canal will not be navigable by the end of April

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, there are 2 traders who have collectively invested $13,200, buying the "No" outcome for "Hormuz Strait to be reopened by April 30th." The average entry price for these bets is 45¢, and the current probability of the "No" outcome is 46%.

Currently, the market widely speculates that U.S. President Trump, due to extreme concerns about the surge in oil prices triggering inflation and potentially undermining the petrodollar system, is trying to announce a "victory" as soon as possible to withdraw from the situation.

However, the Iranian side seems to have recognized the U.S.'s reluctance to engage in a prolonged conflict and is further escalating asymmetric tactics by substantially blockading this global energy chokepoint through the deployment of sea mines in the Hormuz Strait.

According to CNN citing insider information, Iran has recently deployed dozens of sea mines in the strait to pose a long-term deterrent to commercial shipping.

Based on the market's definition of reopening navigation: if by April 30th, the IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average ship traffic in the Hormuz Strait (including container ships, bulk carriers, tankers, etc.) reaches or exceeds 60 vessels, the market will settle as "Yes."

Note: Based on their trading history, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6;
0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc.