Insight: Bitcoin Sees First-Year Drop Post Halving, 'Four-Year Cycle' May Be Broken

BlockBeats News, January 1st. In 2025, Bitcoin closed at a price lower than the beginning of the year, marking the first time in history that it recorded an annual decline in the year following a halving, sparking intense debate in the market about whether the "Bitcoin four-year cycle" has come to an end. Despite the most recent halving occurring in April 2024, BTC had previously hit a all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th, but then experienced a significant pullback, currently down over 30% from the peak, weakening its performance for the year.

Analysts pointed out that after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin had all reached new highs in the following year, a pattern that has not been seen in this current cycle. Vivek Sen, the founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly stated that Bitcoin's annual decline after a halving signifies the "official death of the four-year cycle."

Investor Armando Pantoja, on the other hand, believes that the inclusion of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheet assets has shifted Bitcoin away from being driven by retail sentiment alone to being more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulations, and geopolitics. However, there are differing opinions as well. Markus Thielen, the research director of 10x Research, stated that the four-year cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by the "programmed halving" factor, unfolding in a new form.

The market's divergence on Bitcoin's long-term cyclical structure continues to widen.