Bitunix Analyst: NFP Loses Momentum Again as Unemployment Breaks Above 4.5% — Macro Weakness Becomes Clear, Crypto Enters a “Policy-Driven Trading” Phase

BlockBeats News, December 17th. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for November rose by 64,000—above market expectations but still well below the year-to-date average. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, a near four-year high. August and September payrolls were revised down by a combined 33,000, reinforcing that the labor-market slowdown is not a one-off fluctuation but a continuation of structural cooling. Job growth was heavily concentrated in healthcare and construction, while federal government employment continued to contract. Rising part-time employment and short-term unemployment suggest increasingly cautious hiring behavior among firms.

From a policy perspective, weaker payroll momentum combined with a rising unemployment rate further strengthens market pricing for an earlier Fed policy pivot. Although average hourly earnings remain at a solid 3.5% YoY, confidence in individual data points has declined amid government shutdown distortions and frequent revisions. As a result, markets are focusing more on trend signals and the Fed’s reaction function rather than headline figures.

For crypto markets, this NFP release represents a classic case of “directionally supportive but short-term volatile” data. Rising rate-cut expectations support the medium-term liquidity narrative, but worsening employment conditions also intensify recession concerns. With the easing narrative nearing a repair threshold, post-event deleveraging and sharp price swings become more likely. In the near term, attention should turn to CPI and initial jobless claims to see whether markets use macro weakness to complete liquidity clean-outs.

Bitunix Analyst View:

The macro narrative has shifted from “whether inflation is cooling” to “whether employment is losing momentum.” For crypto, the key is not a single NFP print, but whether labor data continues to reshape policy expectations—and, in turn, redefines capital allocation across risk assets.