This Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: Fed Rate Cut a “Done Deal”, Hawk-Dove Debate in the Spotlight

BlockBeats News: This week, the Federal Reserve's last monetary policy meeting of the year is approaching. The interest rate decision will be announced at 3:00 (UTC+8) on Thursday, with Federal Reserve Chair Powell holding a monetary policy press conference at 3:30 (UTC+8). According to CME FedWatch, there is an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. This week's Fed meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years. Investors are closely watching the policymakers' diverging views on rate cuts and the signals Federal Reserve Chair Powell will send about the future direction of policy. Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 5 members are opposed to or skeptical of further easing, while 3 members are in favor of a rate cut. Since 2019, there has not been a meeting where three or more dissenting votes have occurred, making dissenters the focus of attention. Key macro data and events are as follows:

Tuesday:

Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision, RBA Governor Lowe holds monetary policy press conference;

Wednesday:

US Q3 Labor Cost Index q/q; Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;

Thursday:

Fed FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary, Fed Chair Powell holds monetary policy press conference;

US Initial Jobless Claims up to the week of December 6;

Friday:

Fed releases US Household Financial Health Data in Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report;

FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks on the economic outlook for 2026;

FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamrick speaks;

Chicago Fed President Gulspie participates in a moderator discussion prior to the 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium of the Chicago Fed.

Market Closure Reminder: NYSE closes early on Wednesday at 2:00 AM Beijing time; US stock markets, several European markets, KOSPI, and ASX are closed on Thursday. Trading of CME precious metals, WTI crude oil, forex, stock index futures contracts, and ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will be suspended all day.