Analyst: Bitcoin's "Risk Mitigation Model" Predicts Pullback Risk, Further Downside Potential Still High

BlockBeats News, December 6th, despite a recent rebound in Bitcoin, CryptoQuant's Multi-Metric Risk Oscillation indicator is still close to the "high-risk" area. This level has historically signaled a market pullback and reduced the likelihood of a sustained upward trend.

CryptoQuant's "Risk-Aversion Model" combines six indicators—downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rate, open interest of futures contracts, and market performance—to generate a data-driven market vulnerability assessment. As the oscillation indicator approaches 60 or enters the "high-risk" area, the risk of a pullback remains high.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also pointed out that the Profit/Loss Score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extremely concentrated loss of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs). Historically, this level has often coincided with bear market conditions and prolonged cooling-off periods. The current 32% drawdown exceeds the typical pullback levels within a normal cycle (-20% to -25%), but has not yet reached the threshold for panic selling (-50% to -70%), putting Bitcoin in a vulnerable "middle ground."

Adler stated that as long as the macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability indicators fail to improve, the likelihood of further downside remains high even if the price stabilizes around $90,000.